From

Location

Message

Date Posted

Colo Springs CO

Are seeds almost at the peak point where they will not grow any offspring as large as the fruit they came from? According to the past few years trends, the answer unfortunately would be yes !

65/520= 13% 2017
97/589= 16% 2016
95/594= 16% 2015
124/520= 24% 2014
86/355= 24% 2013
121/375= 32% 2012
140/372= 38% 2011
187/449= 42% 2010

Seeds that grew fruits larger than the parent seed were added up (only the ones over 1,000 pounds) and that number was divided by the number of 1,000 pound pumpkins grown that year. A lot of the parents are not listed on the GPC yearly weigh offs, so this only helps us see whats happening, enough to see a clear pattern. Growers experience, seasonal conditions, and a host of other factors play into all of this, but clearly the data points towards the fact seeds aren't growing larger fruit like they previously have.

In 2010 42% of the seeds we planted would grow pumpkins larger than the seed planted. In 2017, only 13% of the seeds planted grew pumpkins larger than the seed planted.

I have some theories as to why this is happening. I would like to hear other growers thoughts and theories about this.

12/25/2017 1:09:48 PM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

I would reply, but I don't go on the Bigpumpkins.com site on Christmas. Oooops! I did go Christmas Mass before I went here at least.

12/25/2017 2:19:13 PM

On a cliff in the desert

I think that the focus has been on best Cross Weight Average (CWA) and seeds that have been known good genetics(2145) for a short term monster pumpkin and money than a long term focus on combining seeds to build a better seed by getting bad plant genetics out and getting/keeping good genetics into seeds. Monster pumpkins come from seeds with great genetic combinations along with good weather, good soil, etc. More work needs to be done for collecting data about your plant to provide a basis for selective breeding. It will take a few years for a larger and popular seed to be created. Then someone will grow a 3K pumpkin.

12/25/2017 3:29:16 PM

Georgetown, Ontario

I don't think we are reaching peak pumpkin potential, I think we are reaching peak grower potential. As the pumpkin weights go up there are fewer and fewer growers that have the potential (skill, time, weather, comitment, etc.) to grow a pumpkin bigger than the parent.

12/25/2017 7:20:52 PM

Eastern Pennsylvania

Hi Marc, How are you selecting your data pool/ population? Because the one thing that is definitely still growing is the amount of new people enjoying our hobby. So if the math is done straight of course the data is skewed because newbies are being incorporated with heavy hitters. I think most people on this site would agree that the top weights are going up exponentially.

12/25/2017 7:43:04 PM

Colo Springs CO

I am just using what data is available from the GPC weigh off totals from each year. Not every pumpkin that was GPC weighed has the parent cross listed though. I did a quick run through, counting up the pumpkins which were larger in weight than it's parent seed. I then found how many 1,000 pumpkins there were, and I divided the number of larger fruits by the number of 1000 pound fruits.

If everyone all grew 2145's or 2009's, and those two had the genetic makeup like the 1068 had, there would be several more pumpkins weighing more than 2145 or 2009 from those seeds. That Bobier x Knauss cross produced 30 pumpkins larger than itself. The 2145 has produced only 2 larger pumpkins, the 2009 has produced 6. I have no doubt next sought after seed will come from a cross of those two. Most of those seeds are sure to grow fruit over 1000 pounds, but how many larger pumpkins will come from that cross ?

12/25/2017 9:34:53 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

Seems to me...but what do I know...that as weights go up, the offspring % will certainly go down. This is a very special game being played! & Marc's #'s make sence. Remember now, how many times in the past 15 or so years? New World Record? Not so much % of seeds outgrowing parents, but records being set!!! Peace, Wayne
PS...everyone should hope that the VanHook brothers don't ever move to the New England area!!!

12/25/2017 11:48:59 PM

Bethlehem CT

In the past ten years there has been a shift. Growers are now planting The seeds from a world record or a seed that came from a top ten pumpkin. Years ago growers didn't really do this. The chosen seeds were not the from the heaviest pumpkins in their respective years. examples 998 Pukos, 1385 Jutras, 1068 Wallace, 723 Bobier, 1166 Rodonis.. These were good sized pumpkins in there day but not the heaviest pumpkins, grown in those years.

In todays world we are planting pumpkin seeds that are from the very heaviest of the prior years crops , 2145 McMullen, 2624 Willemns, 2009 Wallace, etc Because growers are planting more seed from the elite sized pumpkins it has become harder to grow them bigger than the weight of the parent seed.
This isn't the only factor in what Marc is describing but I do believe it does need to be acknowledged.

12/26/2017 8:20:54 AM

Brownsville, MD

Looking at the 1068 Wallace as an example, one thing stands out to me. The 1068 was grown in 2003 and that was right about the time that mycorrhizae were becoming more common. Producing 30 pumpkins that were bigger than itself may have had something to do with that.

Consider this: the 723 Bobier- a seed from 1999- produced 3 1400lb pumpkins in the mid-2000's. Clearly, the genetic material to produce 1400+ was there in 1999 and there were a ton of 723 seeds planted prior to 2005, but none went over 1400 prior to 2005.

The numbers we are looking at today aren't coinciding with a paradigm shift in growing- a major difference between the numbers we see today and the numbers we saw 10 years ago.

12/26/2017 10:10:53 AM

Little-TON - Colorado

WhatZ good to see is Marc posting on BP... He is Colorado's longest grower... and full of genetic info.... He grew himself a coat this year at 6035' above sea level....

12/26/2017 11:03:54 AM

Colo Springs CO

lol @ Wiz. This was a subject I have wanted to get some other growers thought on since I noticed the pattern. I do think growing methods defiantly are enhancing the weight of the pumpkins growing today. I have no doubt if I plant a seed from 10 years ago, I should have better results growing it now with the knowledge I've gained over the years. Still, as we all improve year after year, we should continue to see a continued progression towards hitting 3,000 pounds if the genetics are also improving. We hit the 1,000 pound mark and the 2,000 pound mark utilizing what worked when we made,
specific cross pollination genetics. Somehow it seems as if our gene pool has been limited these days to be able to create our next level of genetics, which gets us to the 3,000 pound mark. Am I imagining this or has anyone else thought something similar ? There are no right or wrong answers,and the more input we get from people helps someone reach 3,000 pounds sooner than later.

12/26/2017 12:29:22 PM

Western NY

Ok, here's my thoughts -

3000# is statistically within reach. I'll have to say we've peaked once we go 5+ years without significantly advancing a new WR weight [beyond the projected numbers] - that's how much of a leap the 2624 was, we should hit that weight range again in 2019. (3k should be in 2022)

Your numbers are interesting. I'm wondering if we're seeing more people growing seeds from the top few pumpkins rather than the interesting crosses from "smaller" pumpkins a few years ago, thereby making it a harder goal to beat the mother's weight. <-- after I wrote that, I saw John's reply and he basically said what I was thinking.

12/26/2017 3:25:05 PM

Little-TON - Colorado

Could Bio Char be the next booster? Guess we will learn more in Portland>!

12/26/2017 3:41:58 PM

Guelph, Ontario

Some of this depends on how you do your statistics. I looked at top 25, and 14 of then were larger then seed parent. So 14 out of 25 = 56 %.

12/26/2017 9:04:47 PM

Colorado

When the seed grown is over 1700 lbs its gonna take a ideal set up to best the parents weight.So I think the #'s reflect how many world class growers there are more than some sort of weight plateau/genetic ceiling.I'm fully capable of ruining any seed stocks rep. with a # higher than 1685.

12/26/2017 9:36:01 PM

Colo Springs CO

There were many people who have grown the 2145 and the 2009 I would consider to be world class growers, and yes Joe, you are one of those...LOL! You are also capable of growing a 2,000 pounder given the right conditions, and the right seed. The numbers are reflecting a possible plateau, its just in all the years growing, this has not ever happened. Andy has a reasonable time table to see how this plays out. I remain hopeful but skeptical we have the genetic potential to reach those predicted dates.

Also, yes I agree that some of this depends on how you do your statistics. I looked at top 25, and 14 of them were not larger then seed parent unless your using data from 2015 only. When using only the top 25 pumpkins as data the following results are as follows for the 2010-2017 seasons. Not as telling as my initial data, but it does show similar results.

7/25 = 27% 2017
17/25= 68% 2016
14/25= 56% 2015
17/25= 68% 2014
19/25= 76% 2013
20/25= 80% 2012
19/25= 76% 2011
22/25= 88% 2010

12/27/2017 11:57:41 AM

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

I agree the culture has changed. Right about the time the 1725 Harp came into play. We use to never grow the record seeds but the seed that grew the record. I don't agree with the math. If I plant a 2145 odds are 1 to 1,000,000 that I ever would achieve a pumpkin above 2145. It is no fault of the seed

12/27/2017 1:15:05 PM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

As others have posted, my first thought was that the phenomenon Marc is showing was actually a shift in seed selection over time; growing seeds from heavier and heavier mothers. That seems to be part of it, but the other part is that the average grower doesn't really seem to be getting much better:

Below is a different way of looking at the same thing Marc's showing. Looking at all named seeds:

Year Median_mother_seed_weight
2011 1229lbs
2012 1303
2013 1376
2014 1472
2015 1557
2016 1549
2017 1625

So, yes, Higher seed weights are being picked more often each year. but...

Year Median_named-fruit_Weight
2011 807lbs
2012 843
2013 809
2014 896
2015 896
2016 943
2017 861

The middle of the pack fruit each year is staying relatively constant or rising only slightly.

On an individual-fruit basis:

Year Difference_between_mother_and_fruit
2011 -385lbs
2012 -403
2013 -488
2014 -440
2015 -568
2016 -528
2017 -579

So roughly the same offspring weights from bigger mothers yields a greater average difference between the two. The bell shape curve slips farther over leaving a lower number of offspring greater than the mother weight.

I'm not sure exactly what that tells us, but I'm not sure it has anything to do with inline breeding at all.

12/27/2017 3:32:46 PM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

The above analysis could be a little confusing, so I should clarify that it still appears much better to pick seeds with bigger mothers (and probably bigger fathers too).

Even if the offspring weight might be less than the seed weight. You still have better chances of bigger offspring with a bigger seed_mother_weight. Looking over 2011-2017 The equation for offspring weight vs Mother-seed Weight is:

Offspring_Weight = 319.8 + 0.41 * Mother_Seed_wt

12/27/2017 3:50:39 PM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

Getting at the inline breeding question...kind of...

There has been somewhere between 1% to 3% increase in offspring weights over the last few years (whether you look at Average or median or 75%ile; for named seeds or all seeds).

Max weight increases on average 4-5% per year, but the number of fruit grown also increases through time on the order of 4-6%. Number grown is statistically related to the max, so averages, medians, etc. (as above) are probably a more stable indicator.

But either way, it's going up, so that's some evidence that we're still moving in the right direction. If there was inbreeding problems we'd be leveling off or going down.

12/27/2017 4:10:18 PM

Grittyville, WA

@ Linus the chance of me growing a 2,000 lb pumpkin is 1 in 1,000,000. ...But you can have 1 in 999,999 if you want.

12/27/2017 6:22:18 PM

Deer Park WA

Scott, love your stats but personally I think the average grower is getting much better! They are perfecting their techniques and more importantly their soil. The genetics are a big part of the equasion, but I personally think the main reason we are seeing the weights going way up is the average growers skill and commitment to the art. Most genetics today have the potential to hit 2000 given the above mentioned.

12/28/2017 12:52:04 AM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

Gads - Certainly not picking on "average growers". I didn't show, but the 75%ile growers gain about the same percentage-wise. Collectively that's the rate of gain per year.

It's true that some individual growers do get much better than 1-3% better each year...but then they aren't average growers anymore, I guess. ha!

12/28/2017 1:09:07 AM

Colo Springs CO

Everyone has great points. I can say one thing, the people growing these days are significantly more advanced than most of the growers who initially were here at the start of bigpumpkins.com. Before big pumpkins website, any growing info on pumpkins could pretty much only be found at hort.net /pumpkins back in the mid 90's. Back then, it wasn't uncommon to see growers asking if vine burying was really all that important. I can see now why weights jumped way up over the years.

I still encourage everyone if possible, give other seeds a chance, or grow and develop your own genetic lines. Proven stable genetics sure are nice though, hard to not grow or clone them, but if space isn't totally a factor, give the lesser known seeds a chance. The best seed genetics out there probably aren't even being grown and are sitting somewhere in a box. They may have even been created by yourself (!)

12/28/2017 8:18:17 AM

Long Island,New York

years ago i did a personal investigation in growers growing same seed years in a row....by and large the fruit got bigger every year (holland 567.5Mombert, Rose 723 Bobier come to mind now, 15 yrs later). Genetics? naw......cultural practices? I doubt the grower tuned in to that particular seed or that there even are significant seed habit variations....for what its worth I think its cultural (soil,ammendments etc)mostly plus advancements in genetics.....based upon cursory, unprofessional observations and "backyard research". And the major source of information we sadly no longer have....AGGC.........................Glenn on the sidelines.

12/28/2017 8:26:01 AM

Long Island,New York

years ago i did a personal investigation in growers growing same seed years in a row....by and large the fruit got bigger every year (holland 567.5Mombert, Rose 723 Bobier come to mind now, 15 yrs later). Genetics? naw......cultural practices? I doubt the grower tuned in to that particular seed or that there even are significant seed habit variations....for what its worth I think its cultural (soil,ammendments etc)mostly plus advancements in genetics.....based upon cursory, unprofessional observations and "backyard research". And the major source of information we sadly no longer have....AGGC.........................Glenn on the sidelines.

12/28/2017 8:26:05 AM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

Great point Glenn. Of the gains we see, how much are genetic vs grower ability vs weather vs etc? Given the seemingly slow and noisy rate of advancements from all sources it seems impossible that we could get much clarity. Different subsets of data can appear to validate different points. e.g. Advancements in squash size makes a strong argument for genetics.

To dig into Gads' question a bit more: I looked at some heavy hitter's year-over-year improvement for a period of 5-10 years and 4%-8% average annual gains are common.

12/28/2017 1:12:43 PM

Colo Springs CO

Look..... It's Glenn Andrews! One of the first two pumpkin/squash growers who started propagating indoors, many moons ago. And Gadberry too, who was part of my propagation experiment growing Joe Scherber's 746 plant he grew his, and Colorado's first 1,000 pound pumpkin from. Andy Wolf as well... WOW. Its been a long while indeed...glad to see you guys still lurking in BP, sharing your vast knowledge with others!

12/29/2017 2:27:17 PM

Deer Park WA

Looking forward to seeing you at the Big Show Marc!

12/29/2017 4:05:37 PM

Midway, UT

Interesting post Marc. I'm with Andy. If the world record gets broken consistently then we haven't peaked, but as has been said many times in the past, there has to be a statistical upper limit. But growers used to say the 1,000 pound mark would never get broke and that ceiling get smashed.

1/4/2018 5:23:49 PM

Colo Springs CO

Hi Gads, can't wait to finally meet up with you after all these years. Miss seeing you Arvada boy... sure you don't miss the hail ! If records keep falling and seeds keep producing, there isn't a comcern. But if this is what we are starting to see, it will not be an easy fix to ascend as fast as we have so far. If we end up having all the same similar genetic plants, we will need some "new blood" from somewhere. Something to keep in mind... perhaps, sooner than we think.

1/5/2018 1:48:26 PM