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Deer Park, WI

Pumpkin stats enthusiasts-

Last winter I compiled historical data on top weights back dating to 2006. The purpose of this exercise was to determine if there is a mathematical trend that can predict future weights based on historical data with any degree of confidence.

Using top ten GPC fruit for each year, I assembled a trend line that charted top ten average and top pumpkin. To my surprise, both trend lines displayed R-squared values greater than 0.95, meaning that the data is highly correlated and provides some strength in its predictive capabilities.

Updating for 2017, here's the output: The 2016 equations predicted a top weight of 2598lbs and a TTA of 2236lbs, actual top weight for 2017 is 2363 (Holland) and TTA landed at 2143.

2017 was a down year as a whole relative to historical trends and their predictions.

This can be attributed to normal variation and/or the unseasonably cool weather experienced across much of the upper midwest in August, in addition to other weather events that may have held back top performances across the globe. 2017 data actually increased the strength of correlation of the data as a whole, because 2016 top weight was a bit of an outlier to the high side (2624lbs)

2016 data predicted the 3000lb barrier would be crossed in 2021. Because the 2017 data slightly pulled down the slope of the trendline, 2021 top weight prediction lands at 2971, pushing 3K into 2022.

Top Ten GPC average projection remains north of 2500lbs for 2021 growing season.

take these numbers with a grain of salt. They simply project a future based on history, albeit a highly correlated history rooted in a simple y=mx+b straight line fashion.

At some point, the hobby is bound to plateau, as all trends seem to do. We just do not have any indication in the historical data that we've gotten to that point yet.

10/30/2017 1:07:05 PM

Grittyville, WA

Interesting post. Thanks.

10/30/2017 4:19:52 PM

nowthen

It baffles me how you can speak so fancy with a keystone light in your hand

10/30/2017 5:21:16 PM

Deer Park, WI

nectar of the gods tastes great AND builds vocabulary!

10/30/2017 6:02:01 PM

Wisconsin

Lol Tony

10/30/2017 8:05:34 PM

Sharon, MA

Thanks for the post Joe. Its an interesting journey we are on.

10/30/2017 8:55:24 PM

nowthen

When do we hit 5k joe?

10/31/2017 10:02:55 AM

Deer Park, WI

Since we have a linear fit, anyone with a calculator can determine projected year for any weight imaginable.

y=100.19x-199542 where y=weight and x=year.

5000=100.19x-199542

x=2041.5

5k will be breached about June of 2041 by this calc. :)

10/31/2017 5:52:18 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

Joze, what would happen if everyone would grow John Van SanBaggus's seeds next year...which all go 15% or more over the chart? Maybe not all, but some a lot more & a few just a little less? Would 15% over chart change your predictions? LOL Peace, Wayne

11/1/2017 1:45:34 AM

nowthen

Joze,
Not sure what all this means, I only have so many fingers and toes. So I'm glad you just gave me the answer. It would have taken a lot of keystones to figure that out.
In my opinion I don't think any seed selection would make a difference, there are to many variables in pumpkin growing. 15% hvy may sacrifice for large ott ect. This year there was a lot of 2145s planted. Would the outcome be much different if everyone planted the 1949 or the 1918? Maybe but I think it would all average out on the same trend.

11/1/2017 9:00:16 AM

Rhode Island

joe

great information and for our hobbies sake ? i hope you are correct.

hell at one time i thought we might never see 2,000 lbs === so much for that since 2012.

i still believe we very well could be close to the max but then again? what the hell do i know.

my own son proved me wrong (three times ) ---then i proved myself wrong in 2016 as well.

time will tell

pap

11/1/2017 8:37:11 PM

Deer Park, WI

Growing the SanBaggus seed would move us along the same trajectory towards 3k, however, the pumpkins would get physically smaller and smaller and smaller as their density increased at a faster rate than their mass. Similar in concept to a neutron star, where a teaspoon of the stuff weighs more than a few hundred elephants.

Perhaps through this breeding line, we can achieve the pumpkin singularity, where mass/weight is infinitely high and size is infinitely small.

:)

11/2/2017 8:15:27 AM

Arden, NC

Careful Joze, you may bring on a supernova in Sanbaggus brain.
Wouldn't want to get it on me if it should blow. :)

11/2/2017 7:26:12 PM

Croatia, EU

Joze, beside the info I just like the way you talk and putting this together :D

11/2/2017 8:34:47 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

Joe, have (obviously) not done the research that you have done, but...have seen in person & in photo's several of the SandBaggus pkns this year (and the last couple of years)...and they don't seem to be getting smaller in size (OTT) but yet seem to keep the % over the chart characteristics! Wondering a couple of things? Why don't they bring the TOP money at auctions...and more important...what is their secret? Peace, Wayne
Now I know that Frank Mudd has a Camel (Clyde), but didn't know that John & James had elephants? LOL

11/3/2017 1:08:14 AM

Deer Park, WI

Thanks for the kind words and questions, everyone. Regarding Wayne's question on % heavy seeds, I'll take that into a new thread.

11/4/2017 9:15:31 AM