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Deer Park, WI

Folks-

Following my presentation Saturday where we had a lively discussion about the implications of the top weight projection chart, (see it here: http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=269809) a number of growers inquired about the significance of the 2624 on the dataset.

This pumpkin posted nearly a 400lb spread between it and last year's top weight pumpkin, which, rightly so, gives it the appearance as an extreme outlier.

Without question, breaking the WR by 300+lbs is a jaw-dropping achievement. However, when viewed in the context of the dataset that predicts when/if the 3000lb barrier will be broken, it is surprisingly only slightly significant.

Have a look- If the 2624 would not have been weighed, historical data would have predicted 2450 as the top weight for 2016. Plugging 2450 as a hypothetical data point in place of 2624 predicts a top weight of 2987 in the year 2021. This is a 42lb, 1.4% difference in the trendline prediction compared to 2624.

Lets skew it more to the negative. If Pap's 2261 had been #1 in the world 2016, the trendline shifts down 65lbs in the year 2021, predicting a top weight of 2964, a 2.1% difference when compared to 2624 as the actual top weight.

So it appears the 2624 is a necessary datapoint in predicting 3000lbs by 2021. But due to the magnitude & consistency of historical top weight growth over the last ten years, if 2624 is replaced with a data point a little more "down to earth", the trendline still puts us within 35lbs of the 3000lb mark in 2021

3/19/2017 6:39:59 PM

Boscawen, NH

Joe- I would suggest looking at it a bit differently. Toss in Beni's 2328dmg for the year 2013 and take out the 2624 for last year and then do a trend line for just the past 4 years. That gives a very different picture. Mathias's 2624 does show what "can" be grown but the past 4 years suggests low probability.

3/20/2017 8:17:03 AM

Woodward, Oklahoma

3,000 by the end of 2018. If not this year.

3/20/2017 10:31:58 PM

Western NY

Joe - I forgot to ask last weekend - It appears that the 2624 was about as much of an outlier as the 1689 was at the time on your chart. How similar were those bumps?

3/21/2017 8:41:06 AM