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Joliet, IL

funny how i forget each year how my mind loves to spin potential growth numbers once sets start taking off. the longer i do this the more how i have been proven more wrong than right with potential outcome guesstimates made early on. last year in my diary i posted no record breaker here for my little 20.5" 10 day old 1421.5 stelts pumpkin which was 65" 20 day old and 115" 30 day old that really didnt kick in until day 25 and kept it up all season for another 75 days after that. lol. i have had a 30 day pumpkin estimated over 500 pounds and finished early and 13 percent light.

my point being is enjoy the crunching of numbers cuz we have been waiting for this all winter and spring. but dont do anything drastic if your numbers are not the same early on as some other growers. keep your plants and soil happy and enjoy the ride....love them what ever rate they go and dream big!!!

7/8/2014 7:45:00 PM

Karns City PA

Well said!

7/8/2014 8:25:12 PM

Williamsburg,KY

Excellent pep talk Shazzy. We all need to keep those thoughts in mind. It should be fun. No matter what I am not going to cry this year.

7/9/2014 7:53:55 AM

Deer Park, WI

I agree, Shaz, number crunching is a fulfilling aspect of the hobby and a little awareness goes a long ways in putting things into perspective.

I'll reiterate Shaz's wisdom that early season measurements (Day 10, D20, D30) are of little relevance for predicting end weight. D40 is where Circ and OTT measurements should start to more closely align with the averages for your target weight.

For perspective, I recommend downloading the "Ailts/Landry 1400lb Benchmark Worksheet" at the St. Croix Grower's website:

http://www.stcroixgrowers.org/Benchmark_worksheet.pdf

here you can find statistical averages for a collection of 1400lb fruit, providing circumference and OTT data for ten day intervals. Herein lies evidence of the wide range of values in early season that put you in the running for achieving 1400+lbs:

D10 Circ range: 21.5"-33.5", average: 27.5"
D20 Circ range: 68.5"-88.5", average: 78.5"
D30 Circ range: 110.5"-129", average: 120"

D40 and beyond, there is a consistent 20" spread between the low circ and high circ at each 10-day interval thru D90. Fascinating stuff!

7/9/2014 9:41:51 AM

Ontario, Canada.

Yup, I agree with Joe. The benchmarks are just that. They are a sign post as you past the mile marker. There is indeed a huge variance in the D numbers.

7/11/2014 8:57:54 AM